The Kenyan government has identified 18 counties considered vulnerable to the expected effects of a strong El Niño weather event, putting national and county emergency teams on high alert as the country prepares for above-normal rainfall from October.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has warned that there is an 81 per cent probability that the El Niño event will be strong. Authorities have also placed the likelihood of its effects continuing into early next year at 97 per cent.
The government has consequently developed a risk assessment aimed at identifying areas that could face the greatest impact.
The assessment, prepared by the National Disaster Operations Centre, considers several possible hazards, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, displacement and damage to infrastructure.
The 18 counties are spread across the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions. Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been identified as high-risk urban centres because of their vulnerability to flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale have been identified as areas that could experience flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.
Authorities have warned that some communities in these areas could be displaced if heavy rains cause rivers and drainage systems to overflow.
The Lake Basin is also expected to face significant risks. Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori have been listed as vulnerable to flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
The region's proximity to Lake Victoria and several river systems makes some communities particularly exposed to rising water levels and flooding.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok have been placed on the risk map. Unlike the coastal and Lake Basin counties, these areas could face a combination of hazards, including drought, flash floods and landslides.
Authorities have also identified possible livestock losses and food insecurity among the risks facing residents.
The North Eastern region has also been included in the government's preparedness plan, with Garissa, Wajir and Mandera identified as vulnerable.
The major concerns in these counties include drought, water shortages, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity.
Officials have stressed that the risks will not be the same across all the identified counties. While some communities could experience excessive rainfall and flooding, others may face water shortages and drought-related challenges.
This variation means that emergency responses will have to be tailored to the specific risks facing individual regions.
The government has also indicated that the list is not necessarily final. Additional areas could be incorporated into the response plan if further assessments by experts show that they are vulnerable to El Niño-related hazards.
The warning comes as Kenya continues to strengthen its disaster preparedness following previous episodes of destructive flooding. Past heavy rains have caused deaths, displaced families and damaged roads, homes, farms and other infrastructure across the country.
National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have already been placed on high alert and are being sensitised on their roles.
The government is expected to work with county authorities to strengthen early-warning systems and prepare for possible emergencies.
Residents in vulnerable areas have been urged to remain alert to weather advisories and take precautions as the rainy season approaches.
Communities living near rivers, steep slopes and other flood-prone areas may face heightened danger if rainfall becomes intense.
With the meteorological authority forecasting above-normal rainfall from October, the coming months will be crucial for Kenya's preparedness.
The government's risk mapping is intended to ensure that resources and emergency teams can be deployed quickly should conditions deteriorate.
As authorities continue monitoring the weather patterns, the focus will remain on protecting lives, reducing damage to property and ensuring that communities most exposed to the expected El Niño effects are prepared before the rains arrive.